The Komodo Dragon, Varanus komodoensis, is the world’s largest lizard, and an island dweller. Fewer than 3,000 individuals live in an area of ~600 km2, divided between the islands of Komodo, Rinca, Nusa Kode, and Gili Motang within the World Heritage‐listed Komodo National Park of Indonesia. Flores is the largest island (13,540 km2). Outside of park boundaries, the lizard’s range has contracted and population declines have been documented due to the expansion of human settlements, illegal hunting of prey species, and forest clearance for agriculture. Currently, Flores’ Komodo dragons occur in a small number of habitat fragments along the north and west coasts of the island. Only about 80 km2 of potential Komodo Dragon habitat is protected for conservation purposes on Flores.
Climate change models project that over the next century, Indonesia will experience unprecedented rates of both temperature rise and reduced rainfall, leading to a prolonged dry season with increased fire frequency and decreased soil moisture. This is projected to cause a contraction of mesic forest cover and expansion of drier vegetation communities, such as savannah woodland. The vegetation changes are likely to alter the lizard’s habitat and prey availability and impact survival and reproduction. Rising sea levels are likely to inundate the low‐lying valleys that currently support the highest densities of Komodo dragons, leading to a permanent loss of their preferred lowland habitat. When combined with the current issues of human‐induced habitat loss, this could be disastrous for the species.
In a recently published paper, Jones et al. (2020) estimate the effects of projected regional temperature increase and sea‐level rise on the habitat suitability, metapopulation structure, and total population size of Komodo dragons between 2010 and 2050. Determine whether the risk of extirpation differed across island populations. Investigate the effect of structural uncertainties in global climate models on projections of extinction risk for Komodo dragons.
They predict that Komodo dragons will be subject to a dramatic population decline and possible extinction due to global warming by 2050 (unless the most optimistic future climate scenarios are realized). The prospect of countering the effects of climate change on Komodo dragons, alongside other agents of rapid global change, is a daunting task facing Indonesia. The authors strongly advocate that national and provincial conservation agencies act now to address impending climate change impacts on the islands within the Komodo Dragon’s range. They suggest that protected areas on the islands of Komodo and Rinca are likely to provide the best “future‐proofed” habitats for Komodo Dragons. Without quick action to mitigate climate change impacts in KNP and on the island of Flores, we risk committing Komodo dragons—a globally iconic species—to extinction.
